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When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:51 pm
by ESquared
As of today (Dec 1) we have 762 Henrys accounted for by our members who have come forth.
For perspective, on June 1 (6 months ago) there were, 632, so we've grown the herd by 130.
But the Holidays are coming, we continue to add new members, so momentum should build, right?
So, just for fun, pick the date when you think our "How Many?" thread will tick over from 999 to 1.000.
I'm going to pick April 24, 2019 (my birthday).
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:02 pm
by Mags
Jan 1st for 801
July 4th for 1000
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:35 pm
by Redthies
August 7th.
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:29 pm
by Sir Henry
June 1st, 2019
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:52 pm
by BigAl52
Im gonna say July 10th 2019
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:40 am
by Lyman
June 16th 2019
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:13 am
by Les
February 18th 2020.
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:01 am
by Sir Henry
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:07 am
by ESquared
I knew my estimate was aggressively optimistic, but Les's had me wondering if I should have taken WAY more time to actually do the math.
I remain bullish...
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:21 am
by Les
Sometimes I like being wrong - this would be one of them.
ESquared wrote:I knew my estimate was aggressively optimistic, but Les's had me wondering if I should have taken WAY more time to actually do the math.
I remain bullish...
Math was never my strong point. Perhaps I've left a year out somewhere along the way?
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:58 pm
by Steve51
October 12, 2019
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:28 pm
by Mags
Closed out 2018 with the "How Many" at 813. Started 2019 with 814. 186 to go to reach 1000.
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:02 am
by ESquared
There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.
The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:58 am
by Mags
.
Back in post #2, I guessed July 4th. Maybe we're using similar 'windage'. We'll see.
ESquared wrote:There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.
The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:35 pm
by ESquared
Are you sure you didn't do the math back then? Great guess, if not, good thinking, if so!
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:03 pm
by Mags
No real math. A guesstimate and a wet thumb in the air (the windage). Well, I did start with with your math in post #1. 130 June 1 to Dec 1. Toss in a bunch for the tail end of hunting season and smidgen more for the holidays and wa-la to close out the year 800+. Figure a bump from LGS post holiday on-sale sales with a steady drizzle/peppering run through to the middle of the year along with maybe another bump in sales as 4th of July approaches. So say ah hmm that otta be another 200 right? So there ya go, ta da, 1000 by July 4th.
So there it is - all windage, right
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:03 pm
by ESquared
Perfectly calculated, professor!
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:12 pm
by Joezilla
June 3, 2019
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:19 pm
by ESquared
ESquared wrote:There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.
The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.
We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.
Post-Holiday bump, for sure.
If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.
Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:56 pm
by Mags
.
That we even have this guessing exercise going is 'geeky' sir geek
ESquared wrote:ESquared wrote:There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.
The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.
We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.
Post-Holiday bump, for sure.
If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.
