When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

[ESquared]

As of today (Dec 1) we have 762 Henrys accounted for by our members who have come forth.

For perspective, on June 1 (6 months ago) there were, 632, so we've grown the herd by 130.

But the Holidays are coming, we continue to add new members, so momentum should build, right?

So, just for fun, pick the date when you think our "How Many?" thread will tick over from 999 to 1.000.

I'm going to pick April 24, 2019 (my birthday).

[Mags]

Jan 1st for 801
July 4th for 1000

[Redthies]

August 7th.

[Sir Henry]

June 1st, 2019

[BigAl52]

Im gonna say July 10th 2019

[Lyman]

June 16th 2019

[Les]

February 18th 2020.

[Sir Henry]

February 18th 2020.

Yea of little faith.

[ESquared]

I knew my estimate was aggressively optimistic, but Les's had me wondering if I should have taken WAY more time to actually do the math.

I remain bullish...

[Les]

Yea of little faith.

Sometimes I like being wrong - this would be one of them.

I knew my estimate was aggressively optimistic, but Les's had me wondering if I should have taken WAY more time to actually do the math.
I remain bullish...

Math was never my strong point. Perhaps I've left a year out somewhere along the way?

[Steve51]

October 12, 2019

[Mags]

Closed out 2018 with the "How Many" at 813. Started 2019 with 814. 186 to go to reach 1000.

[ESquared]

There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.

[Mags]

.
Back in post #2, I guessed July 4th. Maybe we're using similar 'windage'. We'll see.

There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.

[ESquared]

Are you sure you didn't do the math back then? Great guess, if not, good thinking, if so!

[Mags]

No real math. A guesstimate and a wet thumb in the air (the windage). Well, I did start with with your math in post #1. 130 June 1 to Dec 1. Toss in a bunch for the tail end of hunting season and smidgen more for the holidays and wa-la to close out the year 800+. Figure a bump from LGS post holiday on-sale sales with a steady drizzle/peppering run through to the middle of the year along with maybe another bump in sales as 4th of July approaches. So say ah hmm that otta be another 200 right? So there ya go, ta da, 1000 by July 4th. So there it is - all windage, right

[ESquared]

Perfectly calculated, professor!

[Joezilla]

June 3, 2019

[ESquared]

There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.

We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.

Post-Holiday bump, for sure.

If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.

[Mags]

.
That we even have this guessing exercise going is 'geeky' sir geek

There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.

We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.

Post-Holiday bump, for sure.

If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.