When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

[ESquared]

Yeah, I guess, but I'm not even a "numbers guy."

English major.

[Mags]

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First of a new month, how are we trending?

There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.

We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.

Post-Holiday bump, for sure.

If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.

[ESquared]

We ended February at 874, meaning we added 25 rifles during February, falling off of our 1+/day pace, but that was post-Christmas bumpage.

36 in Jan., + 25 in Feb = 61 over a period of 59 days, so we're still ahead of our overall 2018 pace (1.03/day).

Just assume we settle out at right at 1 new rifle per day. We'd hit 1,000 in about 126 days, which would be...

...wait for it...


JULY 4th!

[Mags]

Ha! Good Windage so far!

[BigAl52]

You guys keep posting all those pictures of Uberti Single actions and buying them. You are deterring people from buying Henrys.

[CT_Shooter]

You guys keep posting all those pictures of Uberti Single actions and buying them. You are deterring people from buying Henrys.

Though, if you own a Henry, pretty soon you'll want to pair it with an Uberti SAA of the same caliber; and if you own an Uberti SAA, pretty soon you'll want to pair it with a Henry of the same caliber. It's almost a rule, kinda like the chicken and the egg; each one leads to the other.

[ESquared]

Exactly. Otherwise known as "dual- enablement."

[BigAl52]

Well how about dual enablement on the Henrys. Buy all those first and get us to 1000 then you can buy all the Ubertis you want. Come on now work with me here.

[Mags]

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Good that it is "almost a rule". I couldn't find a Uberti in .30-30 or a .38 with the brass backstrap. So a it's a .45 that goes with my .30-30.

You guys keep posting all those pictures of Uberti Single actions and buying them. You are deterring people from buying Henrys.

Though, if you own a Henry, pretty soon you'll want to pair it with an Uberti SAA of the same caliber; and if you own an Uberti SAA, pretty soon you'll want to pair it with a Henry of the same caliber. It's almost a rule, kinda like the chicken and the egg; each one leads to the other.

[CT_Shooter]

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Good that it is "almost a rule". I couldn't find a Uberti in .30-30 or a .38 with the brass backstrap. So a it's a .45 that goes with my .30-30.

Well, that's a bit like coloring outside of the lines of the same caliber rule; though I'm sure it's still a lot of fun and the rodents won't know the difference.

[Mags]

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I think robert6588 covered our recent splurge into Ubertis. He added 5 Henry's to 'How Many' tonight.

Well how about dual enablement on the Henrys. Buy all those first and get us to 1000 then you can buy ll the Ubertis you want. Come on now work with me here.

...

[ESquared]

Many new members and lots of new Henrys on board the board. A month-end tally will be coming, but, with over 900 now, it will be sooner rather than later...

[markiver54]

Many new members and lots of new Henrys on board the board. A month-end tally will be coming, but, with over 900 now, it will be sooner rather than later...

We're getting close!

[Mags]

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Ya the giveaway driving membership up was unexpected windage. Will wait till your end of month update before adjusting my own windage estimate.

Many new members and lots of new Henrys on board the board. A month-end tally will be coming, but, with over 900 now, it will be sooner rather than later...

[ESquared]

Trying to stay a step ahead of Mags, so taking advantage of the time zone difference and getting the number crunching out of the way at 5:30 Pacific Time!

A combination of a surge of new members and several of those new members showing up with MULTIPLE Henrys already in their safes added 42 Henrys to the tally in March, bringing our total to 916! We started the month with 874, so that put our monthly average at about 1.35/day.

With the Anniversary Sweepstakes continuing through most of April, the influx of new members should continue, so it wouldn't be surprising to see this daily average maintain itself.

To get from 916 to 1,000 Henrys at the March pace will take about 62 more days, so our projected date to reach 1,000 Henrys moved by about a full month, from July 4 to June 3rd-ish!

By the way, the member whose "prediction date" is closest to the actual date (from those predictions ALREADY in this thread, sorry) will win a PINK COMMEMORATIVE RANGE TOWEL!

[ESquared]

Looks like a 2-horse race for the Prize between Henry88 and Joezilla...

[Mags]

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good that I didn't have to remind you to be on the ball this time first of the month

Trying to stay a step ahead of Mags, so taking advantage of the time zone difference and getting the number crunching out of the way at 5:30 Pacific Time!

[ESquared]

Looks like Mags tried to poke me on April 1st to post an update, but I dodged that bullet (!) due to the Forum Tech Upgrades (see blank post above).

So, an update: We ended the month of April with 940 Henrys accounted for, for total adds of 24 for the month, or 0.8 per day.

This is a considerable slow-down from our recent pace, but I'll have to do some more digging to come up with a new projection on when the 1,000 Henry milestone might come about.

More math later....

[ESquared]

Based on our YTD pace, it would appear that we're looking at end of June-ish, but the slow-down in pace makes it hard to pinpoint.

[markiver54]

Or...we could get there and not even know it!..lol