Henry Rifle Forums

NSSF reports May gun sales number to be approx. 1.3million sold. Can't locate the NSSF news release on the NSSF site, so the below will have to do.

https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/nssf- ... ast-month/

Still, over 1.3 million firearms sales background checks were conducted last month. The NSSF’s Mark Oliva had this to say about last month’s totals . . .

May 2021 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of over 1.3 million background checks conducted for the sale of a firearm shows that firearm sales continue at a pace only exceeded by what was witnessed at the onset of the pandemic.

The May 2021 figures were the second strongest for the month on record, surpassed only by May 2020, when 1.6 million background checks for a firearm sale were conducted. Over 8.5 million background checks for the sale of a firearm have been completed this year. That figure outpaces 2020’s totals at the same point, which topped 8.1 million.

If we assume every gun sold was accompanied by a sale of 100 rnds of ammo, that means ammo production rate has to go up to meet new demand. In this case in excess of 13million rnds over and above April's production rate. In the last 12 months that would mean 1.872Billion rnds of ammo sold above the normal production rate, as a lowball estimate. Ammo companies are running as fast as they can just trying to keep up.

Well Im not contributing to the demand as its rocks for sparks and black for smoke around here lately

BigAl52 wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:44 pm

Well Im not contributing to the demand as its rocks for sparks and black for smoke around here lately

Do you cast your own balls, and make you're own BP?

Well, I bought a new toy yesterday and didn't get any ammo.

Hey Gunny, I do cast for a few different cf rounds.

RP

while I have no problem believing figures like "1.3 million firearms sales background checks were conducted last month," I tend to believe they only tell part of the story .... in NC if you have a concealed carry permit, no back ground check is required for individual firearms purchases .... I can't help but believe folks with concealed carry permits contribute significantly to the total sales

GunnyGene wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:48 pm

BigAl52 wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:44 pm

Well Im not contributing to the demand as its rocks for sparks and black for smoke around here lately

Do you cast your own balls, and make you're own BP?

No sir I don’t. Ive spent hours in the past in my garage casting bullets for shooting BPCR long range. Ive never made BP and really have no interest in doing so. Casting round balls is easier than doing those big 540 grain bullets but Ive sold all the casting equipment I had and really have no interest in doing it again.

JEBar wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:16 pm

while I have no problem believing figures like "1.3 million firearms sales background checks were conducted last month," I tend to believe they only tell part of the story .... in NC if you have a concealed carry permit, no back ground check is required for individual firearms purchases .... I can't help but believe folks with concealed carry permits contribute significantly to the total sales

Same here in Texas. No background or waiting period if you have your CHL.
Jake

JEBar wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:16 pm

while I have no problem believing figures like "1.3 million firearms sales background checks were conducted last month," I tend to believe they only tell part of the story .... in NC if you have a concealed carry permit, no back ground check is required for individual firearms purchases .... I can't help but believe folks with concealed carry permits contribute significantly to the total sales

NSSF does adjust for that and other factors, such as private sales (generally an unknown quantity). Like many other time series statistics what matters is the long term trend not a point estimate snapshot.

Their standard boilerplate.

The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.

Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms. It should be noted that these statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold or sales dollars. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.[/quote]

sounds like they are mixing hard facts with (hopefully) educated guesses ....

JEBar wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:35 am

sounds like they are mixing hard facts with (hopefully) educated guesses ....

Sometimes an educated guess is as good as it gets. Most market research is the same. I can't count the number of times I've had to tell my boss (when I was doing stats/risk analysis for Boeing) - "maybe". People don't like uncertainty, but the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. The only thing you can do is play the odds, in business and in poker.

GunnyGene wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:44 am

People don't like uncertainty, but the only thing that is certain is uncertainty.

all too well understood