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When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

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Steve51
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby Steve51 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:58 pm

October 12, 2019
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Mags
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby Mags » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:28 pm

Closed out 2018 with the "How Many" at 813. Started 2019 with 814. 186 to go to reach 1000.
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby ESquared » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:02 am

There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby Mags » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:58 am

.
Back in post #2, I guessed July 4th. Maybe we're using similar 'windage'. We'll see.

ESquared wrote:There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.
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"How Many" #596. http://henryrifleforums.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2019&p=75321#p75321
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby ESquared » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:35 pm

Are you sure you didn't do the math back then? Great guess, if not, good thinking, if so!
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby Mags » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:03 pm

No real math. A guesstimate and a wet thumb in the air (the windage). Well, I did start with with your math in post #1. 130 June 1 to Dec 1. Toss in a bunch for the tail end of hunting season and smidgen more for the holidays and wa-la to close out the year 800+. Figure a bump from LGS post holiday on-sale sales with a steady drizzle/peppering run through to the middle of the year along with maybe another bump in sales as 4th of July approaches. So say ah hmm that otta be another 200 right? So there ya go, ta da, 1000 by July 4th. :lol: So there it is - all windage, right :?:
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby ESquared » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:03 pm

Perfectly calculated, professor!
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby Joezilla » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:12 pm

June 3, 2019
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby ESquared » Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:19 pm

ESquared wrote:There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.


We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.

Post-Holiday bump, for sure.

If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.

:lol:
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Re: When Will "How Many?" Reach 1,000 Henrys?

Postby Mags » Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:56 pm

.
That we even have this guessing exercise going is 'geeky' sir geek :lol:

ESquared wrote:
ESquared wrote:There's probably no math that will hold up, but a bigger sample size is better, right? So, I did some quick data-mining and it appears that we entered 2018 with 472 on the "How Many" thread. We ended up at 813, so we added 341 over the course of 365 days, for .93/day.

The old "Kentucky windage" would say that we'll be to 1,000 in about 186 days (+/-), so "the math" would say it'll be right around July 6th or so.


We started the year with 813 and ended January with 849, for 36 rifles added for the month, or 1.16/day, nearly a 25% increase vs. our daily average for all of 2018.

Post-Holiday bump, for sure.

If we maintain this pace, we'll hit 1,000 in early/mid June. I could do the math for an exact date, but I'm not THAT geeky.

:lol:
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:idea: H009B .30-30
"How Many" #596. http://henryrifleforums.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2019&p=75321#p75321
Wish list: Long Ranger in .223.
Live long enough, learn a lot of stuff and amaze people with all the useless trivia you know.